CERC - CT Economic Resource Center Blog

Finding the Stories in the Data

Fri, 3 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Numbers mean things! They help us make decisions, but not by themselves. Five to 2 is meaningless. But�dark night, lonely street, five of them, two of us�and the need for action starts. It is only in context where the meaning becomes clear. It isn�t the use of numbers in themselves that people change their minds; it is the �story� that goes with the numbers that matters!

Before I go on here I need to point out that I believe it is critically important in our world of economics and economic development to get the numbers right. Numbers can be slippery, difficult to manage, wily even. Work with them enough and try to get them to line up and one or more of them could end up in the wrong place and mistakes are made. Check your work often and if the results matter, have someone else check it. But, mistakes happen and making technical data handling mistakes is honest. Putting the story first and then finding any old numbers that appear to validate the story is not honest. Mark Twain�s quip about �lies, damn lies, and statistics� is funny, but statistics in an honest analyst�s hands should turn the quip--�truth, whole truth and statistics�with margin of errors.� But that�s not how Twain viewed the world. And that�s not my main point.

My main point is that peoples� minds are often changed when a story they are told resonates with them and compels them to act. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then a good picture can tell a good story. Taking numbers and putting them into pictures is something we do all the time as we create charts for presentations and papers. Making those charts meaningful to the viewers and readers can take a lot of time and effort. But when the data are presented in a way that tells a story, the data come alive.

This past Friday I was at a �DataDay� in Boston where they presented a new web-based data visualization tool called WEAVE. I�ve seen this product before, but what struck me during the presentation was the ability it had to quickly review the data from any number of visual perspectives. I often look for the stories in the data starting with databases, then moving to spreadsheets and then presentation software, but the applications I work with don�t have a geography dimension. There also can be significant setup time involved in getting the data into a particular view that captures some of the aspects of the story in the data. WEAVE, with the geography dimension and an ability to select subsets identify outliers and slice cross-sections of the data, could be a very useful tool. I�m looking forward to getting the chance to work with some of the datasets CERC has and exploring new stories and dimensions we�ve not yet discovered. And once we get the numbers lined up so that we have the right story, the ability to make the appropriate decision for the correct action should be much easier.

- By Dale Shannon, CERC, Senior Economist

January - From the Desk of the President and CEO Bob Santy

Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Is January 31st too late to wish you all a Happy New Year? 2012 will be interesting times for economic development in Connecticut, and I don�t mean that as an old Chinese curse! Earlier this month we had our first staff meeting of 2012 here at CERC, and I shared some thoughts about how to define success this year in growing the state�s economy. I asked our staff to consider a series of fundamental questions that could apply to all of us who want to improve the state�s competitive positioning:

What can we do better to ensure that Connecticut is a real player in economic development?
How can we make our economic development tools and programs even better?
How do we make sure Connecticut is being perceived in the best possible light in the economic development marketplace?
What is our story, and are we doing our best to make sure Connecticut shines?
How do we help economic developers make prudent decisions about potential projects?
And, as we improve our competitive positioning�How do we ensure that we develop and deliver a strong message to the world about how things have changed?

While CERC�s success is important to us here, we really only succeed if Connecticut is competing successfully for jobs and investment in the global economy. And we see great evidence of the state�s new leadership pursuing these goals. From the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, Governor Malloy reported on conversations with major international companies � some who already have a presence in Connecticut and some not � about Connecticut�s interest in their inbound investment. What a tremendous opportunity for our state!

For those of us who play a supporting role in the state�s efforts, here are some ideas on how we can achieve success together in 2012:

Collaboration � We can either give it lip service or use it to fundamentally change the way we do business. Connecticut is taking the later course. If we are to succeed in growing the economy, we need to ensure that all resources are aligned, and are being invested consistent with strategic goals. In my conversations with state officials, they are all welcoming the assistance and perspective that those outside of government can bring to our economic development efforts.

Integration � Going beyond collaboration, there are moves to integrate different programs and create transparency and accountability in the myriad programs offered across the state. An example will be the creation of the state�s Innovation Ecosystem with an overriding goal to create a new innovation community through a web environment where all the stakeholders in growing technology companies and jobs can interact. The idea is to foster the type of interaction and collaboration that leads to new products and new jobs. The state also is designing a new business portal that will make it easy for businesses and would-be entrepreneurs to get important information and guidance.

Capacity building � We need to ensure that we have the tools that are necessary to succeed in a 21st century environment. This is true at the local, regional and state level. As the state rolls out its vision for economic development, we need to create a team that has the skills to implement that vision and its goals.

So welcome to 2012! May you live in interesting times.

World Economic Forum

Fri, 27 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

Last week Governor Malloy�s office announced that he has accepted an invitation to participate in the World Economic Forum�s (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland taking place from January 25 - 29. WEF �is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic, and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.� The theme of this year�s meeting is �The Great Transformation: Shaping New Models.� The gathered leaders will be asked to return to their core purpose of defining what the future should look like, aligning stakeholders around that vision and inspiring their institutions to realize that vision.

The meeting will be attended by over 2,600 participants from nearly 100 countries. It is the principal event of the WEF and is by invitation-only held every year at the end of January, bringing together chief executive officers from its 1,000 member companies as well as selected politicians, representatives from academia, religious leaders and the media. Discussion focus around key issues of global concern (such as international conflicts, economic and environmental problems and possible solutions.

Governor Malloy�s office has stated that WEF presents an unparalleled opportunity for the Governor to meet with the world�s leading CEOs in his effort to further market the job growth opportunities available in Connecticut. Governor Malloy commented: �I can�t imagine a better opportunity to share that sentiment (that Connecticut is open for business) with leaders from around the world than at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. It�s a real honor, and I am proud that I will get to represent the people of Connecticut at such an important event.�

We in Connecticut�s economic development community should be encouraged that the Governor will be participating in this important event and hope his involvement will indeed spread the message that Connecticut is a business- friendly state to entities around the world.

- Gretchen Deans, CERC, Director of Administration

From the New Kid on the CERC Block

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

I�m pleased to have joined CERC just in time to kick off a new year! After two weeks on the job, I am delighted both by the warm welcome I have received, as well as the number and quality of ideas many of you have shared. My sincerest gratitude goes to those of you who have reached out and introduced yourselves � and to many more whom I�ll be meeting over the coming weeks and months.

As we know, January is a good month to strategize and set goals for the upcoming year. The mad rush of the holiday season has died down, and we return to more �normal� schedules in both our work and personal lives � at least as much as �normal� can be in our current economic times.

A number of economists predict that in 2012 we will continue a slow slog down the path toward economic recovery. CERC�s Director of Research Alissa DeJonge agrees with this assessment, but anticipates there may be a few bright spots in Connecticut�s economy as well. The healthcare sector has remained strong during the economic slowdown, and indicators show an uptick in manufacturing over the coming months � and of course, there may be other sectors that surprise us.

As we head slowly down the path toward growth, now is the time to think about how to be ready to capitalize on arising opportunities. Landlords may be handling tenant improvements to make buildings more attractive to prospective tenants. Economic development professionals may be developing strategic development plans for local areas impacted by the recession. Meanwhile, brokers can be directing clients to local economic development offices and Connecticut�s Business Response Center at CERC for local and state business assistance programs, services and incentives for which they may be eligible. This is a time for everyone to share ideas about how to reduce barriers to growth and make Connecticut a more attractive location for businesses and investment.

While the level of transactional activity in the real estate sector may not be what we would like to see over the long term, this is our opportunity to put key resources into place that will help us grow and build a stronger Connecticut. I look forward to exploring these ideas with you over the months ahead, and wish all of you a happy and prosperous new year.

- Rachel Gretencord, CERC, Director of Real Estate

Happy New Year is more than just a holiday greeting�

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT

As an economist I am often asked how the economy is faring and when it will start to pick up. Over the past few months it has been quite difficult to answer that question because the monthly indicators have been volatile. However, based on what I heard at the latest CBIA economic outlook conference last week, along with some of the latest economic indicators, I believe there is some room for a bit of cheer for the New Year.

At the CBIA conference, Eric Rosengren, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, spoke about commodity prices being stable and labor markets remaining weak yet improving somewhat, both of which will contribute to the inflation rate staying low for the foreseeable future.

What I have noticed is that since 2006, Connecticut�s labor force is up 4% compared with a 3% growth rate nationally, although it is down somewhat from one year ago. And the state�s unemployment rate is finally dropping � down to 8.7% in October 2011, which is the lowest it has been since September 2009. Prices have fallen during the last half of 2011 for some commodities, most noticeably in energy, airfares and automobiles, which is helping the travel industry and motor vehicle sales.

What�s in store for 2012? The general consensus from economists is that the U.S. should expect to see continued slow economic growth and increased personal income. According to Eric Rosengren, the two issues that have the greatest potential to affect the U.S. economy negatively include the European banking and sovereign debt problems, and the potential for too much fiscal strictness both in the U.S. and abroad.

Even though our links to the global community present a negative risk to the U.S. economy, they also present an upward potential to the Connecticut economy, especially for the advanced manufacturing sector. In my opinion, the relative value of the dollar will poise the state for an economic rebound in manufacturing. This sector, along with the continued success of the healthcare sector, should be the two to watch in this state in 2012 in terms of employment and output growth.

I wish all of you a Happy New Year, both personally and economically. In the words of Nicholas Perna, Managing Director & Chief Economist, Perna Associates, �when an economist says Happy New Year � it�s not just a greeting, it�s a forecast.�

- Alissa DeJonge, CERC, Director of Research